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Sep 17, 2025A new report by Fidelity Digital Assets makes for fascinating reading. Research analyst Zack Wainwright has done a deep dive into how Bitcoin’s illiquid supply is ushering in a new era for investors — led by two key factors: early adopters holding onto their sats for years on end, and a wave of publicly traded companies snapping up as much BTC as they can afford.
The author argues that this could lead to “a new era in Bitcoin’s history,” especially considering Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings of 1.1 million BTC now eclipses the remaining coins that are left to be mined. Noting how the early days of crypto were marked by faucets where people could claim 5 BTC for free — a sum that would now be worth over $500,000 — Wainwright says scarcity will soon replace abundance.
It’s a pretty bullish piece overall, but there’s one important detail buried in the report that is worth highlighting: the race to accumulate Bitcoin on a massive scale could eventually backfire, and lead to unprecedented price pressures should the treasury companies decide to sell some of their stash and bank profits.
Overall though, the author’s prognosis is pretty positive. Fidelity’s estimates suggest that whales who have held Bitcoin for at least seven years — and firms with at least 1,000 BTC in their wallets — will collectively own more than six million coins by the end of this year. He notes that this amounts to 28% of the total supply. And when you consider millions of coins have already been lost (exact estimates differ here) that means there’s even less in circulation for everyday investors.
Here’s what worries me though: most of these purchases have happened very suddenly — over the past 12 months. Back in the third quarter of 2024, the total amount of Bitcoin snapped up by these businesses had barely exceeded 300,000 BTC.
Strategy’s savvy decision to start amassing BTC at bargain basement prices means that its average cost price per coin remains pretty low — about $73,913 as of its latest acquisition on Monday. This means prices could fall by over 30% from current levels and Michael Saylor’s empire would still be in the green.
Other, later adopters don’t have this luxury, with some only entering the market once Bitcoin has broken beyond $90,000 or even $100,000. This means they’re much more exposed in the next eventual downturn. Let’s not forget BTC cratered by more than 75% between 2022 and 2023 in the year following FTX’s collapse. Forced selling could make this bear market even worse.
Wainwright believes that BTC’s recent run to fresh all-time highs of $124,000 is directly down to “new demand coupled with a fixed supply and decreased issuance schedule” — and there are other untapped opportunities still out there.
Sources >> Why Bitcoin’s Biggest Strength Could Be a Major Threat