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Dec 05, 2025Strategy’s ability to hold Bitcoin may shape BTC’s path, as JPMorgan’s gold-based analysis signals potential for $170K.
JPMorgan analysts say the near-term direction of Bitcoin’s price now depends less on miner behavior and more on the financial resilience of Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, even as mining pressure and market volatility persist.
High-Cost Bitcoin Miners Capitulate as Hashrate Slips and Margins Collapse
The decline in hashrate reflects a combination of China reiterating its ban on private mining activity and high-cost miners outside the country retreating as falling Bitcoin prices and elevated electricity costs squeeze profitability.
JPMorgan now estimates Bitcoin’s production cost at $90,000, down from $94,000 last month. The estimate assumes electricity priced at $0.05 per kilowatt hour, with every $0.01 increase adding roughly $18,000 to production costs for higher-cost miners.
As profits tighten, several high-cost producers have been forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in recent weeks to remain solvent.
Despite those pressures, JPMorgan said miners are no longer the key driver of Bitcoin’s next major move. Instead, attention has shifted to Strategy’s ability to maintain its Bitcoin position without being forced into sales.
JPMorgan Sees $170K Bitcoin Scenario Despite Strategy’s MSCI Index Risk
Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation has slowed sharply in recent months, though it remains deeply exposed to price movements.
In November, it added 8,178 BTC in its largest purchase since July, bringing total holdings to roughly 650,000 BTC. Its basic market capitalization stands near $54 billion, with an enterprise value of about $69 billion.
Markets are also watching an upcoming decision by MSCI on whether to remove Strategy and other digital-asset treasury companies from its equity indices. JPMorgan said the downside risk from exclusion is largely priced in.
Sources >> Bitcoin Price Could Hit $170K — But Strategy ‘Resilience’ Is Vital: JPMorgan